NBA-Predict predicts probability of stardom solely off a player's rookie season.
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NBA-Predict only looks at rookie seasons. Giannis averaged 7 points and 4 rebounds as a rookie, yet NBA-Predict gave him a ~50% chance at stardom.
Beyond the numerical rating, NBA-Predict also produces a longform explanation of the player's talent.
Check out NBA-Predict on Github to view the codebase and how it works.